The new politics of Supreme Court confirmations substantially affects the retirement calculus for justices. The elimination of the filibuster for Supreme Court nominations together with the much stronger possibility that a Senate controlled by one party will not confirm a Court nomination by the President of the other will change the date of many justices’ retirements.
Three objectives inform the retirement decisions of Supreme Court justices. First, justices would like to preserve their legacy and thus would prefer to be replaced by a justice like themselves. Second, most justices want to hand back the seat to a President of the party that appointed them. This is secondary to the first objective and when their judicial views diverge substantially from the party that appointed them, as it did in the cases of Justices Blackmun, Stevens and Souter, they will resign during the Presidency of the other party. Third, they want to resign at a time when it will not cause institutional damage to the Court or inconvenience to their colleagues.
The death of the filibuster and the possibility of a blockade generally makes it much easier to meet these objectives if the President and the Senate are controlled by the same party. First, the blockade can leave the Court short staffed, inconveniencing their colleagues. More importantly, the standoff between the President and Senate places the Court in a partisan cross-fire, harming its legitimacy.
In contrast, the absence of a filibuster gives a free hand to the party that appointed the justice if he resigns during a period of unified control of the Senate and Presidency by that party.
Richard Primus has graciously clarified his claim about originalism. It is not that many originalists believe it has never been tried in simple sense. Instead, “in the context of my initial post, ‘never-been-tried’ is a shorthand for something like ‘not yet conducted with sufficient persistence and proficiency so as to let its record of conduct stand as a fair test of what the theory can deliver if carried into practice properly.’ ”
I don’t entirely agree with this narrower claim and I don’t think most other originalists would either, but it is a more interesting question. There are two parts to my demurral. Richard focuses on testing the question of whether originalism constrains decision makers and creating stability. Constraint and stability are not for me the chief advantages of originalism. Nor are they for such varied theorists as Randy Barnett, Keith Whittington, or Jack Balkin. And I am not sure the advantages that these theorists emphasize are reducible to an empirical test through case law. Mike Rappaport and I, for instance, have suggested that the original meaning of the Constitution is likely beneficent by other kinds of arguments. In short, there other justifications for originalism and other ways of making these justifications plausible than empirical review of cases . Originalism can be evaluated in other ways.
A more direct disagreement is that I think there has been enough practice of originalists to suggest, although not prove, that originalism does lead to substantial, albeit not perfect, constraint. Let me set aside the more distant past which was the subject of a prior post. In recent times Antonin Scalia and Clarence Thomas were the most consistent adherents of originalism and not coincidentally they agreed in about ninety percent of cases.